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Finnair A350 Plane Flying.

Finnair

A network airline specializing in Nordic connections

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Overview

Finnair is a network airline established in 1923. The company focuses on passenger and cargo traffic between Nordic capitals and destinations across the northern hemisphere and it has over 100 destinations worldwide. The company has modern and eco-friendly fleet that consists of over 80 aircrafts.
Finnair’s investment case relies on restoring profitability according to its new strategy and operating a cost efficient and eco-friendly modern fleet.

Financial overview

Equity research

Finnair A350 Plane Flying.
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Finnair - Earnings can gain again

Finnair’s results were very strong for Q4 after some more challenging quarters last year. We believe Finnair is positioned to improve again this year, but by just how much remains the key question as valuation has recovered.

Company update |
Finnair A350 Plane Flying.
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Finnair - Q4 profitability was very strong

Finnair’s Q4 top line and profitability came in above estimates as ticket pricing pressure already eased a bit. Finnair’s costs were largely as we estimated and so the EUR 48m comparable EBIT was almost EUR 13m higher than we expected. Finnair already guides FY’25 financial results, however the EBIT range remains wide at this point. There are some cost pressures, but in our view Finnair has a decent chance of achieving improving profitability this year as it plans to grow capacity on its North Atlantic routes.

Earnings Flash |
Finnair A350 Plane Flying.
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Finnair - Scope for improvement

Finnair reports Q4 results on Feb 13. Q4 traffic data was mostly encouraging even if European routes could still perform a bit better. We believe Finnair’s EBIT is likely to gain meaningfully in FY’25, and valuation isn’t too expensive.

Preview |
Finnair A350 Plane Flying.
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Finnair - Room for gains if demand follows

Finnair’s earnings continued to decline y/y in Q3, and although there’s now again potential for gains financial performance remains sensitive to a couple of key factors.

Company update |
Finnair A350 Plane Flying.
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Finnair - Q3 earnings miss

Finnair’s Q3 top line missed our estimate by almost 6% as average ticket fares continued to decrease more than we expected. Finnair’s costs were also lower than we estimated, however that wasn’t enough to compensate for the lower revenue and hence the EUR 71.5m comparable EBIT missed our and consensus estimates by roughly EUR 15-20m. Finnair also specified its FY’24 EBIT guidance a bit, which remains largely in line with previous estimates.

Earnings Flash |
Finnair A350 Plane Flying.
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Finnair - Outlook appears relatively stable

Finnair reports Q3 results on Oct 29. The market still isn’t too bad for Finnair should jet fuel prices remain moderate.

Preview |
Finnair A350 Plane Flying.
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Finnair - Balancing volumes and prices

Finnair’s Q2 EBIT missed our estimate due to slight negative surprises in revenue and costs. There’s still good travel demand, however supply growth limits earnings potential.

Company update |
Finnair A350 Plane Flying.
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Finnair - Earnings landed short of estimates

Finnair’s Q2 results were somewhat softer than estimated as the EUR 44m comparable EBIT missed estimates by more than EUR 10m. Finnair’s FY ’24 EBIT guidance also came in lower than estimated as the midpoint landed at EUR 145m.

Earnings Flash |
Finnair A350 Plane Flying.
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Finnair - Earnings rely more on H2

Finnair reports Q2 results on Jul 19. The market still looks stable, however there have been some estimate cuts lately and Finnair may not see any further gain in EBIT this year.

Preview |
Finnair A350 Plane Flying.
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Finnair - Earnings trend up over the summer
Finnair’s Q1 revenue was a bit soft relative to estimates, however earnings were as estimated thanks to cost discipline. We believe FY ’24 results should stay quite high due to increased capacity and PLFs, however yields may no longer have room to gain despite a busy summer season.
Company update |

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Finnair - Company presentation
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Company news

Finnair Plc               Stock Exchange Release              20 March 2024 at 10:00p.m. EET

Finnair Plc ("Finnair" or "Company") has today, 20 March 2024, on the previously announced reverse split date executed a reverse split, i.e. the reduction of the number of shares in the Company, and a related directed share issue without consideration, redemption of shares and cancellation of shares. After these measures, the new number of shares in the Company is 204,811,392. The new number of shares has been registered with the Trade Register maintained by the Finnish Patent and Registration Office today, 20 March 2024, and trading with the new total number of shares in the Company commences on Thursday 21 March 2024 with a new ISIN code FI4000567029. Finnair's trading code FIA1S will remain the same after the reverse split.

Finnair's Annual General Meeting resolved on 18 March 2024 on the reverse split and on a related redemption of shares so that after carrying out the reverse split, every 100 shares in the Company corresponds to one (1) share in the Company. Concurrently with the execution of the reverse split, the Board of Directors of the Company has today resolved on implementing the directed share issue without consideration resolved by the Annual General Meeting in which the Company has issued without consideration a total of 4,714,922 treasury shares held by the Company in such manner that the number of shares in each book-entry account holding Finnair's shares has been made divisible by 100. The aggregate market value of the shares issued without consideration is EUR 140,976.17, based on the closing price of 20 March 2024.

After the directed share issue, the Company has redeemed without compensation 99 shares for each 100 shares in the Company, in accordance with the resolution of the Annual General Meeting. The Company's shares redeemed in connection with the reverse split have been cancelled immediately. After the reverse split, Finnair holds 354,315 treasury shares.

The aim of the reverse split is to facilitate trading conditions of the shares by increasing the value of a single share as well as to improve the price formation of the shares. The procedure has been explained in more detail in Finnair's stock exchange release on the resolutions of the Company's Annual General Meeting, issued on 18 March 2024.

Shareholders Date % of Shares % of Votes
Prime Minister´s Office 31.03.2025 55.7% 55.7%
Varma Mutual Pension Insurance Company 31.03.2025 2.9% 2.9%
Ilmarinen Mutual Pension Insurance Company 31.03.2025 1.4% 1.4%
Elo Mutual Pension Insurance Company 31.03.2025 1% 1%
The State Pension Fund 31.03.2025 0.9% 0.9%
Xlo Capital Oy 31.03.2025 0.3% 0.3%
Säästöpankki Pienyhtiöt 31.03.2025 0.3% 0.3%
Danske Invest Finnish Equity Fund 31.03.2025 0.3% 0.3%
Nordea Pro Finland Fund 31.03.2025 0.2% 0.2%
OP-Finland Small Firms Fund 31.03.2025 0.2% 0.2%

Equity Research Disclaimer

These research reports have been prepared by Evli Research Partners Plc (“ERP” or “Evli Research”). ERP is a subsidiary of Evli Plc.

None of the analysts contributing to this report, persons under their guardianship or corporations under their control have a position in the shares of the company or related securities. The date and time for any price of financial instruments mentioned in the recommendation refer to the previous trading day’s closing price(s) unless otherwise stated in the report. Each analyst responsible for the content of this report assures that the expressed views accurately reflect the personal views of each analyst on the covered companies and securities. Each analyst assures that (s)he has not been, nor are or will be, receiving direct or indirect compensation related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report.

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Company Facts

CEO Turkka Kuusisto
CFO Kristian Pullola
IR Erkka Salonen
Market cap (EURm) 584
Industry Transportation
Ticker FIA1S

Guidance

Revenue in 2025 will be within the range of EUR 3.3–3.4bn, while comparable EBIT will be within the range of EUR 100–200m

Financial targets

Finnair aims to achieve a comparable EBIT margin of 6% by the end of 2025

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