Alisa Bank - Year of opportunities ahead
Alisa Bank reports its H2 results on February 14th. With the profit warning issued in December we keep our estimates intact. While heading into 2025 with somewhat cautious expectations, we still expect improvements in total income and profitability, with further upside from potential improvements in market conditions.
Profitability to return to positive figures
Alisa Bank reports H2 results on February 14th. The company issued a profit warning in December due to business financing volumes falling short of targets in the uncertain market. The total income for FY24 is expected to remain close to previous year levels and PTP (excl. NRI’s) between EUR -0.4m and 0.2m. Our estimates remain unchanged since our update following the profit warning, expecting H2 total income of EUR 9.8m and PTP of EUR 0.9m. H2 mark’s a notable improvement in profitability following the PURO merger, with improvements driven by the transition to Alisa Bank’s cheaper form of financing.
Cautiously eyeing opportunities ahead
We expect the company to issue a more cautious outlook for 2025 given recent uncertainties. With focus currently on business financing and invoice funding in particular, we expect to see a continued shift away from consumer funding and leveraging existing and new partnerships to seek to accelerate business financing growth. The uncertainty heading into 2025 is elevated, but we still expect to see notable improvements in total income and profitability, largely due to merger benefits and weaker comparison figures. With rather limited OPEX pressure in the near-term, 2025 will offer a good opportunity for Alisa Bank to benefit from scalability and post healthy profit margins, should market conditions improve from the for now still rather careful expectations for early 2025. We expect to see the changing loan portfolio mix in itself to also aid profitability through reduced fee expenses and slightly declining credit losses.
REDUCE (HOLD) with a TP of EUR 0.18
We do not expect the company to propose any dividend distribution. With our estimates intact we retain our TP of EUR 0.18 and adjust our rating to REDUCE (HOLD) following amendments to our rating methodology (see page 3).