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Duell
Duell
Overview
Financial overview
Equity research
Duell publishes its business review for Q3 (March-May) on Wednesday 3rd of July. We expect continued good execution especially in Europe during the company’s most important quarter of the fiscal year.
Duell’s H1/24 showed promising signs while uncertainties still remain ahead of the important H2. With positive adjustments to our estimates, the long-term case is intact.
Duell’s Q2 net sales came in at EUR 28.2m, above our estimate of EUR 25.9m, driven by the TranAm acquisition. With the higher-than-expected sales and further self-help, adj. EBITA was also higher than estimated at EUR 1.4 (Evli est. EUR 0.8m).
Duell publishes its Q2/24 results on Thursday 4th of April. We expect modest revenue growth driven by the TranAm acquisition despite a sluggish Nordic market. Valuation has become attractive, while uncertainties remain high.
Duell's results exceeded our estimates for revenue and adj. EBITA. The revenue beat was largely due to our cautious net sales estimates for Rest of Europe.
Duell was able to grow its revenue 4.9% y/y during the seasonally slow Q1 as the inorganic growth supported the company’s development. With the stronger than expected sales, the adj. EBITA was slightly higher than expected at EUR 0.3m (Evli est. EUR 0.0m)
Duell publishes its Q1 2024 business report on 18th of January. The company’s RI was successful as expected yet we predict that the market softness continued to affect the company’s performance during the seasonally slow Q1.
Duell announced the terms of its fully guaranteed rights offering. The strengthened balance sheet post RI lowers risk, yet continued market weakness is likely to hinder the operational performance.
Duell’s Q4 results were largely in line with the previously released preliminary figures. Reflecting the ongoing strain on the company's balance sheet, Duell announced that it is considering a rights issue to strengthen the balance sheet. With the expected continued operational softness and no positive drivers for the stock ahead of the potential sizeable rights issue, we further downgrade our TP to EUR 0.4 (0.9) and rating to SELL (HOLD).
The Q4 softness came as a no surprise as the company provided preliminary figures in September in conjunction with the profit warning.
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Shareholders | Date | % of Shares | % of Votes |
---|---|---|---|
Hc Dl Holding Oy Ab | 31.03.2024 | 30.1% | 30.1% |
Sponsor Capital Oy | 31.03.2024 | 10.1% | 10.1% |
Varma Mutual Pension Insurance Company | 31.03.2024 | 4.6% | 4.6% |
Säästöpankki Fonder | 31.03.2024 | 4.4% | 4.4% |
Danske Invest Finnish Equity Fund | 31.03.2024 | 2.6% | 2.6% |
Erikoissijoitusrahasto Aktia Mikro Markka | 31.03.2024 | 2.3% | 2.3% |
Keskinäinen Työeläkevakuutusyhtiö Elo | 31.03.2024 | 2.1% | 2.1% |
Oy 4n-group Ab | 31.03.2024 | 1.6% | 1.6% |
Evli Finland Select Fund | 31.03.2024 | 1.3% | 1.3% |
Jarkko Ämmälä | 31.03.2024 | 1.3% | 1.3% |
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Company Facts
Guidance
Financial targets
Duell’s medium term (3-5 years) targets: Net sales in the range of EUR 200-300m in the medium term achieved through both organic and inorganic growth, adjusted EBITA-% at least 13%, net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio 2-3x.
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