Tokmanni - Adj. EBITDA misses due to one-offs; dividend beats; guidance in line
Tokmanni’s revenue grew broadly as expected, with LFL still strong at 4.7% vs. our 4.0% expectation. Adj. EBITDA misses estimates (EUR 28.2m vs. EUR ~31m Evli and cons), driven by one-off costs due to a product recall in the quarter (impact EUR -1.4m) and other costs related to integration of Ale-Makasiini and by prerarations related to the purchase of stores in Northern Finland. Dividend is a bit better than expected, while guidance for 2019E is unsurprising. Tokmanni updated its financial targets to reflect IFRS 16, and now targets “above” 200 stores vs. “about” 200 stores previously. Overall, the report looks just fine.
- Q4 revenue was EUR 268m vs. EUR 267/269m Evli/cons. Revenue grew by 8.0% y/y, driven by 4.7% LFL growth (Evli exp. 4.0%) and new openings.
- Q4 adj. EBITDA was EUR 28.2m (10.5% margin) vs. EUR 31.0m (11.6%) Evli and EUR 31.3m (11.7%) consensus. The miss is driven by one-off costs due to a product recall in the quarter (impact EUR -1.4m) and other costs related to integration of Ale-Makasiini and by preparations related to the purchase of stores in Northern Finland.
- 2018 dividend: EUR 0.50 vs. EUR 0.45/0.47 Evli/cons.
- 2019 guidance is unsurprising: Tokmanni expects good revenue growth for 2019, based on the revenue from the new stores acquired and opened in 2018 and new stores to be opened in 2019, as well as on slight growth in LFL revenue. Group profitability (comparable EBIT margin) is expected to improve on the previous year.