Suominen - Valuation reflects margin gains
We estimate H2 EBITDA to gain EUR 15m compared to H1
Suominen’s Q1 revenue grew 6% y/y to EUR 117m but missed our EUR 120m estimate. Growth was driven by higher prices in the wake of raw materials’, while FX also added EUR 3.4m. Both Americas and Europe were soft relative to our estimates. Volumes were flat while Finnish ports and the Mozzate plant saw strikes. The 4.2% gross margin didn’t meet our 7.0% estimate, in our view due to the top line miss but also because of slower-than-estimated margin rebound following the easing of raw materials costs. The comparable earnings metrics thus fell more than EUR 3m short of our estimates. Suominen retained its guidance, which wasn’t surprising since earnings are bound to increase by at least some amount from the low comparison period, but valuation increasingly places burden of proof on H2.
Our EBITDA estimate for the year is down 15% to EUR 33m
Suominen’s margins and volumes have been volatile in the past three years and so it’s hard to estimate where the gross margin will ultimately land now that the environment, at least in terms of raw materials prices, has began to normalize. The outlook on the balance between supply and demand is no more as favorable as it was. On the positive side Suominen’s new products’ share has continued to increase across the regions, which should support gross margin potential. In our view wiping end-market demand can be expected to remain stable, but there’s still the question of how rapid volume and margin gains the melting of US inventory levels may produce in H2. We believe Suominen’s fixed cost base, following the closure of the Mozzate plant, is adequate to support meaningful earnings recovery (above 10% gross margins) if higher volumes come through.
Valuation neutral assuming a return to historical margins
The 15x EV/EBIT multiple, on our updated FY ’23 estimates, isn’t cheap, whereas the 6x multiple for next year could already be described low. We find the valuation still rather neutral, assuming higher volumes and low double-digit gross margins (historical norm) begin to materialize going towards next year. Our updated TP is EUR 2.7 (3.0) as we retain our HOLD rating.