Pihlajalinna - Focus shifts towards bottom line

Less growth and more earnings this year

Pihlajalinna revised FY ’22 guidance down in Q4 as the factors which hit EBITA earlier in the year persisted. Capacity additions hurt earnings especially in H1, while certain cost inflation and productivity issues continued to weigh H2. Covid-19 services have also been missing, but other than that there have been no demand side issues. Organic growth has been robust, and the Pohjola Hospital acquisition helped the company grow at a high-teens rate in FY ’22. We make no changes to our Q4 estimates. We estimate 3% growth for FY ’23 and ca. EUR 10m profitability increase; we expect Pihlajalinna to guide flat growth and increasing EBITA for the year as the company is now done with its late capacity expansion and will focus on enhancing margins.

Capacity costs have been accompanied by other items

The two larger Finnish players, Mehiläinen and Terveystalo, had major issues last year despite strong growth. Mehiläinen, more than twice the size of Pihlajalinna in revenue, saw its profitability decrease by ca. EUR 35m due to many issues such as inflation and labor shortages. Pihlajalinna likewise has endured some cost inflation as well as labor issues due to both high sick rates and tight availability of recruits. The announced negotiations play their part in managing costs, while Pihlajalinna also divests its EUR 16m dental business, a small alleviation to the indebtedness issues. Price hikes prop top line in FY ’23, but we would also like to hear views on volumes. Public queues need to be dealt with, one area which could add volumes. Organic growth outlook is decent; there are minor top line headwinds due to the dental divestment as well as outsourcing restructurings, but these represent only ca. 5% of revenue and support margins.

Valuation unchanged and relatively undemanding

Pihlajalinna’s valuation, 14x EV/EBIT on our FY ’23 estimates, hasn’t changed in the past few months, while peer multiples have seen some gains. In our view the valuation leaves adequate upside potential as the roughly 5% EBIT margin we estimate for the year remains well short of the company’s long-term earnings potential. We retain our EUR 10 TP and BUY rating.