Finnair - The long recovery continues
We make only minor estimate revisions ahead of the report
Finnair’s RPK almost doubled y/y in Q1, as estimated, and thus reached 77% of the Q1’19 comparison figure. Q1 is always seasonally quiet, however yields should have stayed robust as a lot of pent-up demand is yet to be sated. Finnair’s EBIT returned to black in H2’22, but Q1 EBIT is likely to be negative unless pricing tailwinds have proved stronger than estimated. We estimate Q1 revenue at EUR 572m and EBIT at EUR -32m.
The pivoted network to be seen clear over the summer
Asian volumes are now catching up as the key countries have lifted their travel restrictions, yet Finnair’s Asian volumes in Q1 were still only 54% of the Q1’19 comparison figure while Europe reached more than 80% of the corresponding figure. The Asian figures therefore still have some room to improve after the pandemic slump, but the Russian airspace closure limits their recovery potential and consequently Europe too lacks some of its former potential. Further recovery will thus rely on the network updates and increased density to North Atlantic, Middle East and India routes. We estimate Finnair’s FY ’23 RPK to reach 82% of FY ’19 levels, while strong pricing environment could help revenue to almost 94% of the FY ’19 figure this year. We expect FY ’23 EBIT at EUR 104m on this basis, well short of targeted levels.
Valuation closer to neutral from a long-term perspective
Airline valuations haven’t budged much in the past few months; absolute valuations have remained steady while earnings outlook has improved further. Finnair remains valued around 15x EV/EBIT on our FY ’23 estimates, a considerable premium relative to a typical peer. The multiple is about 9x on our FY ’24 estimates, which is still above many peers while we estimate Finnair’s profitability to stay well below those of its peers. We hence view Finnair rather fully valued in the short-term perspective; Finnair’s 5% EBIT margin target, set to be achieved from H2’24 onwards, may not prove too challenging as long as key value drivers like passenger volumes continue to trend favorably. We retain our EUR 0.47 TP; our new rating is HOLD (SELL).