Exel Composites - Profitability outshines uncertainties

Exel’s Q2 volumes developed as expected while profitability was a big positive surprise. We weigh the strong performance against valuation prudence; caution is warranted since volumes are sensitive even in benign business climates. However, we view the current valuation simply too low. Our TP is EUR 6.25 (5.50), rating BUY.

Top line as expected, profitability a major positive surprise

Exel’s Q2 was as expected in terms of group-level revenue. The figure was EUR 27.2m i.e. in line with the EUR 27.9m/27.2m Evli/cons. estimates and up 3% y/y. Wind power grew by 52% y/y, and the EUR 7.9m figure was clearly above our EUR 6.6m estimate. The increase was driven by Asia-Pacific. All in all, it seems the pandemic has had only a limited impact on Exel’s business so far. Revenues have rolled in as expected and Q2 order intake only fell by 4% y/y, which in our view is a remarkable result considering the business and the current macro context. In this sense the Q2 update was a bit unsurprising relative to the Q1 release. The surge in profitability, however, was unforeseen. Exel achieved EUR 2.9m in adj. EBIT, compared to the EUR 2.0m/2.0m Evli/cons. estimates. The US unit fueled the positive surprise.

Profitability outperformance has been extended

Guidance wasn’t reinstated (Exel guided increased revenue and adj. EBIT earlier this year). In our view the reluctance to issue guidance for now reflects order uncertainties. Deliveries could be hit should the environment rapidly worsen, which is a relevant possibility. Yet in our view Exel is on a clear track to achieve higher earnings, considering the EUR 5.0m in H1’20 adj. EBIT vs the EUR 4.2m in H1’19. The company has topped the expectations we had prior to the pandemic. The earnings report changes our top line estimates very little, but we upgrade our profitability estimates. We previously expected EUR 3.7m in H2’20 adj. EBIT, and now see the figure at EUR 5.1m. For FY ’21 we now estimate the figure at EUR 11.1m (previously EUR 9.5m).

Valuation is undemanding especially compared to peers

Exel has continued to outperform our expectations while the macroeconomic situation does justify some valuation caution. We nevertheless see clear upside to current multiples. Our new TP of EUR 6.25 (5.50) implies ca. 6.5x EV/EBITDA and 10.5x EV/EBIT on our estimates for this year. Our rating remains BUY.

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