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Alisa Bank - Slow near-term development

Alisa Bank’s total income in H fell short of our estimates, PTP slightly better than expected. Capital constraints limit near-term growth, but the outlook still remains fairly good once additional capital has been raised.

Total income below expectations, slightly better PTP
Alisa Bank’s H1 results were slightly better than anticipated on bottom-line level. Total income of EUR 8.4m was below our estimates (Evli EUR 9.5m) mainly due to the lower than estimated net fee and commission income of EUR 0.8m (Evli EUR 1.7m). Total OPEX of EUR 5.7m corresponded to our estimates and the C/I-ratio improved to 69% but still well above desired long-term levels. PTP amounted to EUR 0.4m (Evli EUR 0.1m), with lower than anticipated impairment of receivables (act./Evli EUR 2.2m/3.7m) compensating for the lower than estimated total income. 

Capital constraints limiting growth in the near-term
We continue to expect to see the slow growth in H1 be reflected also in H2. The company expects income to grow in H2 compared with H1, with the impact of market interest rates in our view to be the larger driver behind growth. We currently anticipate only a small growth in the loan portfolio. The raising of additional capital remains instrumental in enabling more rapid growth of the loan book, which we are confident will happen during H2. The consumer lending environment remains slightly more challenging due to the higher interest rates and stricter lending policies and capital constraints while corporate customer lending has grown in particular due to invoice financing. We expect to see a pick-up in growth in 2024e, but current market conditions remain a challenge in achieving the annual growth target of the loan book of more than 25%, and limited OPEX growth needs to support improved bottom-line figures. 

HOLD with a target price of EUR 0.37
We see no notable changes to our views on Alisa Bank due to the H1 report. 2023 is set to remain on the weaker side on growth and earnings while the company continues to build foundations for ramping up growth in the coming years.  

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