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Alisa Bank - Awaiting pick-up in growth

Alisa Bank reports its H1 results on August 18th. The loan portfolio development YTD has been flat, with growing interest rates on deposits adding pressure on H2. The growth potential remains in place, but more proof is needed. We adjust our TP to EUR 0.37 (0.40), HOLD-rating intact.

Loan portfolio development flat despite volume growth
Alisa Bank (Fellow Bank until April, 2023) will report its H1 results on August 18th. The company’s loan portfolio growth YTD has been sluggish and more or less flat at EUR 157.8m in July. This, despite a rather steady growth in monthly figures for intermediated financing, having seen a peak of nearly EUR 40m in May. Deposits have likewise remained flat, at EUR 249.4m in July. The loan book has remained mostly within the EUR 160-170m mark, which according to the company would be needed to reach positive profit levels. Our net earnings estimate is at EUR 0.1m, with uncertainty relating to realized and expected credit losses.

Growth needed to counteract increasing interest expenses
We have lowered our estimates for the remained of the year, now expecting near-zero net earnings. The challenge for Alisa Bank in our view right now is the discrepancy between the loan book and deposits. The company has been actively raising the interest on its deposits throughout H2, now at 3%. Without growth of the loan book, interest expenses will start to become a burden on earnings. Therefore, our key interest in the H1 report lies on the company’s growth outlook and more recent new products, such as the Banking-as-a-Service cooperation with Talenom. 

HOLD with a target price of EUR 0.37 (0.40)
With the start-up of operations, rebranding (and expected focus on marketing), new products and lending activity remaining fairly good, despite a slower start to 2023, growth potential still remains. Awaiting more signs of growth and on our lowered estimates, we adjust our TP to EUR 0.37 (0.40), HOLD-rating intact.

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